Bitcoin’s Cooling Phase: Derivatives Retreat Signals Market Consolidation

As of early January 2026, Bitcoin's derivatives market is showing clear signs of a tactical retreat, indicating a cooling of the speculative fever that had previously driven prices toward the $90,000 threshold. The cryptocurrency's recent failure to decisively break through the $89,000-$90,000 resistance zone has prompted a significant unwinding of leveraged positions across major trading platforms. This shift is most evident in the dramatic plunge of open interest on Bitcoin futures contracts, which has fallen to approximately $42 billion—marking an eight-month low. This represents a substantial drop from the $47 billion level seen just two weeks prior, underscoring a rapid erosion of bullish momentum in the absence of fresh, market-moving catalysts. The recent price action on Friday saw Bitcoin face a firm rejection at the $89,000 level, triggering a wave of liquidations totaling around $260 million. This event acted as a catalyst for the broader derisking trend. However, amidst this pullback, a key metric—the futures basis rate—has remained surprisingly stable at around 5%. This stability in the basis, which is the difference between futures and spot prices, is a critical signal. It suggests that while leveraged speculation is retreating, the core institutional and long-term bullish narrative for Bitcoin has not fundamentally broken. The market appears to be entering a phase of consolidation and deleveraging rather than a panic-driven capitulation. This period of cooling is likely healthy for the market's long-term structure. The excessive leverage that had built up during the rally toward $90,000 created a fragile environment prone to sharp corrections. The current withdrawal from derivatives allows the market to reset, building a more solid foundation for the next potential upward move. For professional practitioners, this presents a nuanced picture: short-term speculative heat is diminishing, but the underlying, steady demand reflected in the stable basis rate implies continued confidence in Bitcoin's medium to long-term value proposition. The focus now shifts to identifying the next catalyst—be it regulatory clarity, macroeconomic shifts, or institutional adoption milestones—that could reignite momentum and provide the fuel for a sustainable breach of the key $90,000 resistance level.

Bitcoin Derivatives Retreat Signals Cooling Speculative Fever

Bitcoin's failure to breach $90,000 has triggered a tactical withdrawal from Leveraged positions, with open interest on futures contracts plunging to $42 billion—an eight-month low. The drop from $47 billion in two weeks reflects eroding bullish momentum absent fresh catalysts.

Friday's market activity saw $260 million in liquidations as BTC faced rejection at $89,000. Notably, the stable 5% futures basis rate suggests tempered but persistent institutional confidence amidst the deleveraging.

Bitcoin's 2026 Outlook: Samson Mow Predicts Decade-Long Bull Run Amid Market Divergence

Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, asserts that 2025 marked the end of Bitcoin's bear cycle rather than its beginning. His contrarian view suggests a potential 10-year bull run starting in 2026, fueled by structural demand drivers and constrained supply dynamics.

This bullish thesis clashes with cautionary forecasts from analysts like Peter Brandt, who anticipate near-term corrections. The divergence underscores Bitcoin's maturation as an asset class where macroeconomic factors increasingly outweigh retail sentiment.

Market infrastructure developments—from ETF approvals to institutional custody solutions—create fundamental support absent in previous cycles. Volatility persists, but the floor appears elevated compared to historical bear markets.

Bitcoin Stalls Near $88K as MACD Bullish Cross Hints at Trend Shift

Bitcoin's price action has entered a consolidation phase following its volatile 2025 rally, reflecting late-cycle dynamics characterized by thinning liquidity and reduced leverage. The cryptocurrency remains range-bound between $86,500 and $90,000, with market participants awaiting a decisive breakout or breakdown to determine the next directional move.

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe notes the critical nature of the $86.5K support level, warning that repeated tests could lead to a breakdown toward $80K. Conversely, a clean breakout above $90K may open the path to $105K, as buyers and sellers remain in equilibrium.

The MACD's bullish cross suggests a potential trend shift, though low-volume conditions demand caution. Institutional interest continues to underpin Bitcoin's resilience, even as retail traders hesitate in the current range-bound environment.

Bitcoin Block Height Proposed as Universal Time Standard, Raising Tax Implications

A radical proposal suggests using Bitcoin's block height as a universal timekeeping mechanism for global crypto markets. The concept would replace traditional calendar-based timestamps with verifiable blockchain data, creating what proponents call Universal Bitcoin Time (UBT). Block 929,699, mined on December 27, could theoretically mark a New Year's transition under this system.

The idea gains traction from Bitcoin's decentralized nature—whereas midnight varies by jurisdiction, block height remains consistent across all nodes. Historical parallels exist: U.S. railroads faced similar resistance when standardizing time zones in 1883. Yet adoption WOULD create tax complexities, as capital gains calculations currently rely on civil calendar dates.

Network metrics underscore Bitcoin's growing infrastructure. Hash rate reached [INSERT LATEST VALUE] EH/s, with difficulty hovering NEAR [INSERT VALUE]. Circulating supply stood at [INSERT VALUE] BTC as markets traded in the [INSERT PRICE RANGE] zone. These fundamentals highlight the network's robustness as a potential timekeeping layer.

Sberbank Tests Crypto Lending With Russia’s First Bitcoin-Backed Loan

Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, has issued the country’s first loan secured by Bitcoin, marking a tentative step toward digital finance integration. The pilot facility was extended to Intelion Data, a prominent bitcoin mining firm, as part of an experiment to assess crypto-backed credit within Russia’s tightly regulated financial framework.

The bank confirmed that Intelion Data’s mined Bitcoin served as collateral, though specifics on loan size, duration, and collateral value remain undisclosed. This opacity reflects the transaction’s experimental nature and ongoing risk evaluation.

Sberbank employed its internal custody system, Rutoken, to safeguard the crypto collateral until loan repayment—a move designed to minimize reliance on third-party custodians. The pilot program aims to study crypto-backed lending behavior under real-world conditions while addressing legal, technical, and operational hurdles.

Bank executives hinted at potential expansion if the model proves viable, with future loans possibly targeting corporate borrowers.

Bitcoin Could Begin Decade-Long Bull Run After 2025 Bear Phase: Samson Mow

Bitcoin may be on the cusp of a prolonged bull run extending into the next decade, according to Jan3 founder Samson Mow. He contends that the bear market concluded in 2025, setting the stage for a multi-year upward trajectory that could persist until 2035. "2025 was the bear market," Mow tweeted, dismissing last year's downturn as a minor phase rather than the start of a deeper decline.

Market analyst PlanC echoes this optimism, suggesting investors who endured recent volatility have already weathered the worst. This bullish outlook contrasts with conservative forecasts pointing to Bitcoin's October all-time high of $125,100 as the cycle peak. At press time, BTC trades near $87,740, down 1.03% with a 52.51% drop in trading volume to $13.31 billion.